Economies move through long-term debt cycles that typically last 50 to 100 years. They begin with low debt and sound money, expand through credit-fueled prosperity, and end with debt burdens that can no longer be serviced at prevailing interest rates.
Historically, the dominant reserve currency — the Dutch guilder, the British pound, and now the U.S. dollar — has followed this same arc. The closing chapter is rarely default in name; it is usually devaluation, monetisation, or both.
Recognising where we are in the cycle is not a market call. It is a planning input. Trusts are designed to outlive cycles, which is why their structure matters more than any single allocation decision.